At This Point In 2007 and 1991

Over the weekend, Political Wire asked, "Do early polls mean anything?"

The answer is a solid, unequivocal "no."

At this point in 2007, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani were on their way to cakewalk wins in their respective primaries, with Giuliani beating the former first lady by a small margin in 2008 general election polling.

Over Memorial Day weekend in 1991, President George H. W. Bush enjoyed approval ratings up near 70% following the successful completion of the Persian Gulf War. He seemed so invincible for reelection that the heavy guns on the Democratic side sat out the 1992 presidential race. A year and a half later, with the economy in recession, Mr. Bush received only 37% of the national vote, the lowest tally for a sitting president since 1912.

So, no, the polls at this point mean nothing. The Republican field is still very fluid and lackluster, and, despite that, unless unemployment makes it way down to 8% or lower, the President should be considered vulnerable for re-election.