While Kathy Hochul, the Democratic candidate, won Tuesday's special election in New York's 26th congressional district, I remain of the contention that the seat is still favored for the Republicans in the 2012 general election. A few key points:
The Democrat won this seat with 47% of the vote against a Republican opponent (43%) and an independent tea-bagger backed opponent (9%). The math here supports my theory.
Moreover, in 2008, when Barack Obama carried New York state by an overwhelming landslide, the Republican candidate won this district's House race by 15 points. If I were a betting man, I'd place a wager on the theory that the President will win New York state by a smaller margin in 2012 than he did in 2008, and that the lack of coattails will flip this House seat back to the GOP.
Independent voters and old-school Republicans were disgusted with their former Republican congressman following his unfortunate sexual tryst via CraigsList. Enough of them were willing to vote Democratic this one time only in an effort to clean out the system, so to speak. (In 1994, following rather damaging ethics violations, super-powerful Dan Rostenkowski was dumped by voters in his highly Democratic district in Chicago in favor of a little known Republican candidate. Two years later, voters put the seat back in the Democratic column, where it has remained since. It is my belief that something similar is playing out in NY-26.)
Ms. Hochul is not a resident of the 26th district. And while New York law simply states all candidates for office must live within the state, next year's Republican candidate will slap the "carpetbagger" label on her back unless she relocates soon.
Of course, I am not a New Yorker, let alone a western, up-state New Yorker, and I could be completely wrong here. Needless to say, I'll be watching this one with interest on election night next year.
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